Migration and spatial distribution of the demographic dividend: Regional effects of the interprovincial working-age population flows in China
Interprovincial migration in China has redistributed the working-age population at an unprecedented scale, yet its spatial demographic consequences remain underquantified. This study constructs a Net Demographic Dividend Transfer index to capture the provincial balance of working-age inflows and outflows across 31 Chinese provinces from 2000 to 2023, and applies two-way fixed effects panel models and a spatial Durbin model to decompose direct and indirect spillover effects on provincial old-age dependency ratios, with instrumental variable estimation addressing endogeneity concerns. Results show that net inflows of working-age population significantly reduce provincial old-age dependency ratios while net outflows accelerate demographic ageing in sending regions. Spatial spillover effects are significant and asymmetric: eastern provinces generate positive demographic externalities for neighbouring regions, while central, western, and northeastern provinces impose negative spillovers on surrounding areas. Regional heterogeneity analysis further reveals that western and central provinces exhibit substantially greater sensitivity to working-age outflows than eastern provinces, reflecting the compounding vulnerability of smaller, higher-dependency origin regions. These findings collectively indicate that interprovincial migration operates as a spatial redistribution mechanism for the demographic dividend, deepening regional demographic divergence rather than moderating it. Compensatory policy measures for sending provinces are warranted to address the structural asymmetry in demographic costs generated by market-driven labour mobility.
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