The role of premarital childbearing in fertility intensity and reproductive intentions: Insights from sub-Saharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) continues to have the highest total fertility rates (TFRs) globally. While existing fertility frameworks emphasize the proportion of women in union as a key determinant, fertility outside marriage, particularly premarital childbearing, remains underexplored. This study examines premarital childbearing and its impact on fertility intensity across 35 SSA countries using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys. Conway–Maxwell–Poisson regression models were used to assess the effects of premarital childbearing on fertility levels and reproductive intentions, controlling for maternal education, wealth, age at first childbirth, contraceptive use, age at sexual debut, and place of residence, including the interactions of premarital childbearing with maternal age. Moreover, demographic measures, including age-specific fertility rates, TFRs, and parity progression ratios (PPRs), were used to examine the impact of premarital childbearing on fertility levels and reproductive intentions. Premarital childbearing is increasingly prevalent, with substantial variation across countries. In approximately 83% of the countries analyzed, premarital childbearing is associated with a decline in fertility intensity, with interactions showing a stronger decline with advancing maternal age. PPRs and survival analysis indicate lower progression between consecutive parities, particularly from first to fourth parity, highlighting delayed childbearing among women with premarital births. These findings position premarital childbearing as a key determinant of fertility intensity alongside marriage and union dynamics. Its interaction with maternal age reveals cumulative effects across the reproductive life course, with the strongest influence observed at early parity transitions, thereby refining existing fertility frameworks by explicitly incorporating non-marital fertility, particularly premarital childbearing, as a key factor shaping reproductive trajectories in SSA.
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