Post-pandemic marriage trends in Japan: Impacts of economic conditions and parental living arrangements
The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted family formation among young people worldwide, contributing to a sharp decline in fertility rates. This study examines whether the relationship between young people’s economic and family circumstances and their transition to marriage changed temporarily or persistently before and after the pandemic in Japan, a context characterized by prolonged pandemic control measures and a rigid gender division of labor. Using data from the Japanese Panel Study of Employment Dynamics (2016–2024), we conducted discrete-time logistic regression analyses with marital events as the dependent variable, restricted to unmarried individuals. The results indicate that men with lower incomes were temporarily more likely to delay marriage after the pandemic. In addition, men in non-regular employment tended to marry later than those in regular employment, and this pattern persisted after the pandemic; however, the gap between these groups narrowed because men in regular employment also delayed marriage compared to the pre-pandemic period. Changes in the effects of employment status and income on marriage were observed exclusively among men following the pandemic. Furthermore, young people living with their parents were more likely to delay marriage during the pandemic period. These findings suggest that the association between marriage transitions and individual attributes shifted both temporarily and persistently after the pandemic, contributing to the observed decline in marriage rates. This empirical analysis of Japan during the pandemic extends our understanding of how COVID-19 affected marriage behavior in other national contexts.
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