Community context and third parity among ever-married women in Bangladesh: Insights from a nationally representative survey
Despite a significant decline in fertility over the past 30 years, Bangladesh’s total fertility rate has stalled at 2.3 since 2011, indicating a period of stagnation in reproductive behavior. This situation raises important questions about the role of community-level factors, which may be critical but remain underexplored as determinants of the failure to reach replacement-level fertility. The present study investigates how various community-level and individual-level factors influence the transition to third parity among ever-married women in Bangladesh, utilizing comprehensive data from the 2022 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey. The analysis reveals that families with more than two children significantly impact third birth rates, particularly in communities with a high prevalence of larger families, where the rate reaches an alarming 76.5%. Furthermore, community-level illiteracy and poverty demonstrate complex effects on birth intervals, with higher levels of these factors associated with an increased likelihood of third births. To identify the key determinants influencing the timing of third births, we employed the Cox proportional hazards model, estimating parameters using the maximum likelihood approach. The findings indicate that community characteristics, especially the prevalence of larger families, significantly increase the hazard of transitioning from second to third births, with hazard ratios ranging from 1.55 to 4.01 across different models. Other important determinants include age at first marriage, educational attainment, and exposure to mass media, underscoring the intricate relationships between socioeconomic factors and reproductive behavior. These results highlight the crucial need for targeted interventions that consider community characteristics to effectively influence fertility decisions.
Ahammed, B., Kabir, M.R., Abedin, M.M., Ali, M., & Islam, M.A. (2019). Determinants of different birth intervals of ever married women: Evidence from Bangladesh. Clinical Epidemiology and Global Health, 7(3):450-456. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cegh.2019.01.011
Balk, D. (1994). Individual and community aspects of women’s status and fertility in rural Bangladesh. Population Studies, 48(1):21-45. https://doi.org/10.1080/0032472031000147456
Bongaarts, J., & Casterline, J.B. (2018). From fertility preferences to reproductive outcomes in the developing world. Population and Development Review, 44(4):793-809. https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12197
Bora, J.K., Saikia, N., Kebede, E.B., & Lutz, W. (2023). Revisiting the causes of fertility decline in Bangladesh: The relative importance of female education and family planning programs. Asian Population Studies, 19(1):81-104. https://doi.org/10.1080/17441730.2022.2028253
Caldwell, J.C. (2001). The cultural context of population change. Journal of Population Research, 18(1):5-17.
Colleran, H., Jasienska, G., Nenko, I., Galbarczyk, A., & Mace, R. (2014). Community-level education accelerates the cultural evolution of fertility decline. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 281(1772):20132732. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2013.2732
Colleran, H., Jasienska, G., Nenko, I., Galbarczyk, A., & Mace, R. (2015). Fertility decline and the changing dynamics of wealth, status and inequality. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 282(1806):20150287. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2015.0287
Cox, D.R. (1972). Regression models and life-tables. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological), 34(2):187-202. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1972.tb00899.x
Croft, T.N., Marshall, A.M., Allen, C.K., Arnold, F., Assaf, S., & Balian, S. (2018). Guide to DHS Statistics. Vol. 645. Rockville: ICF, p.292-303.
De Jonge, H.C., Azad, K., Seward, N., Kuddus, A., Shaha, S., Beard, J., et al. (2014). Determinants and consequences of short birth interval in rural Bangladesh: A cross-sectional study. BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth, 14:427. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12884-014-0427-6
Dribe, M., Juárez, S.P., & Scalone, F. (2017). Is it who you are or where you live? Community effects on net fertility at the onset of fertility decline: A multilevel analysis using Swedish micro-census data. Population, Space and Place, 23(2):e1987. https://doi.org/10.1002/psp.1987
Feeney, G., & Feng, W. (1993). Parity progression and birth intervals in China: The influence of policy in hastening fertility decline. Population and Development Review, 19(1):61-101. https://doi.org/10.2307/2938385
Husain, H. (2022). The dynamics of asymmetry among fertility, income inequality and financial development in Bangladesh. World Development Sustainability, 1:100014. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wds.2022.100014
Islam, M.M., & Hasan, A.S. (2000). Mass media exposure and its impact on family planning in Bangladesh. Journal of Biosocial Science, 32(4):513-526. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0021932000005137
Islam, M.M., Rob, U., & Chakroborty, N. (2003). Regional variations in fertility in Bangladesh. Genus, 59(3-4):103-145.
Islam, M.Z., Islam, M.M., Rahman, M.M., & Khan, M.N. (2022) Prevalence and risk factors of short birth interval in Bangladesh: Evidence from the linked data of population and health facility survey. PLoS Glob Public Health, 2(4):e0000288. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0000288
Islam, S., Islam, M.A., & Padmadas, S.S. (2010). High fertility regions in Bangladesh: A marriage cohort analysis. Journal of Biosocial Science, 42(6):705-719. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0021932010000428
Kravdal, Ø. (2002). Education and fertility in sub-Saharan Africa: Individual and community effects. Demography, 39(2):233-250. https://doi.org/10.1353/dem.2002.0017
Kulu, H. (2013). Why do fertility levels vary between urban and rural areas? Regional Studies, 47(6):895-912. https://doi.org/10.1080/00343404.2011.581276
Lesthaeghe, R. (2010). The unfolding story of the second demographic transition. Population and Development Review, 36(2):211-251. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2010.00328.x
Lesthaeghe, R. (2020). The second demographic transition, 1986- 2020: Sub-replacement fertility and rising cohabitation-a global update. Genus, 76:10. https://doi.org/10.1186/s41118-020-00077-4
Mahfuzur, M.R. (2021). Factors influencing progression to a larger family in mid-and late-transitional fertility stalls: A case study of Bangladesh. Journal of Population and Social Studies [JPSS], 29:563-585. https://doi.org/10.25133/JPSSv292021.035
McQuillan, K. (2004). When does religion influence fertility? Population and Development Review, 30(1):25-56. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2004.00002.x
Mezmur, M., Navaneetham, K., Letamo, G., & Bariagaber, H. (2017). Individual, household and contextual factors associated with skilled delivery care in Ethiopia: Evidence from Ethiopian demographic and health surveys. PLoS One, 12(9):e0184688. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0184688
National Institute of Population Research and Training (NIPORT) and ICF. (2024). Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 2022: Final Report. Dhaka, Bangladesh, and Rockville, Maryland, USA: NIPORT, ICF.
Nisha, M.K., Alam, A., Islam, M.T., Huda, T., & Raynes-Greenow, C. (2019). Risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes associated with short and long birth intervals in Bangladesh: Evidence from six Bangladesh demographic and health surveys, 1996-2014. BMJ Open, 9(2):e024392. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2018-024392
Rabbi, A.M.F. (2012). Mass media exposure and its impact on fertility: Current scenario of Bangladesh. Journal of Scientific Research, 4(2):383. https://doi.org/10.3329/jsr.v4i2.8917
Rabbi, A.M.F., Karmaker, S.C., Mallick, S.A., & Sharmin, S. (2013). Determinants of birth spacing and effect of birth spacing on fertility in Bangladesh. Dhaka University Journal of Science, 61(1):105-110. https://doi.org/10.3329/dujs.v61i1.15105
Rahman, M.M. (2020). Role of proximate determinants in recent and past fertility stalls in Bangladesh. Biodemography and Social Biology, 65(2):119-136. https://doi.org/10.1080/19485565.2019.1683713
Reher, D.S. (2011). Economic and social implications of the demographic transition. Population and Development Review, 37(S1):11-33. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2011.00376.x
Sobotka, T. (2017). Post-transitional fertility: the role of childbearing postponement in fuelling the shift to low and unstable fertility levels. Journal of Biosocial Science, 49(S1):S20-S45. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0021932017000323
United Nations. (2024). World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results. UN DESA/POP/2024/TR/NO. 9. New York: United Nations.
Vignoli, D. (2006). Fertility change in Egypt: From second to third birth. Demographic Research, 15:499-516. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2006.15.18