AccScience Publishing / IJPS / Volume 1 / Issue 1 / DOI: 10.18063/IJPS.2015.01.006

A simulation analysis of the longer-term effects of immigration on per capita in-come in an aging population

Frank T. Denton1 Byron G. Spencer1*
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1 Department of Economics, McMaster University, L8S 4M4, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
© Invalid date by the Authors. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution -Noncommercial 4.0 International License (CC-by the license) ( )

Immigration is a possible instrument for offsetting longer-run adverse effects of population aging on per capita income. Our “laboratory” is a fictitious country Alpha to which we assign demographic characteristics typical of a country experiencing population aging. Si-mulations indicate that a very high immigration rate with heavy concentration in younger working ages might be required to keep per capita income from declining. More rapid produc-tivity growth would also offset population aging as would higher rates of labour participation of older people. Longer life expectancy, taken alone, would lower per capita real income, as would higher fertility rates.

per capita income
population aging
age structure

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