AccScience Publishing / MSAM / Volume 5 / Issue 2 / DOI: 10.36922/MSAM025460109
ORIGINAL RESEARCH ARTICLE

Hierarchical Bayesian model selection for three-dimensional-printed cementitious materials

Felipe Guerrero1* Albert R. Ortiz1 Peter Thomson1 Daniel Gomez1
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1 School of Civil and Geomatics Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universidad del Valle, Cali, Valle del Cauca, Colombia
MSAM 2026, 5(2), 025460109 https://doi.org/10.36922/MSAM025460109
Received: 13 November 2025 | Accepted: 24 December 2025 | Published online: 2 April 2026
© 2026 by the Author(s).. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License ( https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ )
Abstract

Three-dimensional (3D) concrete printing presents significant challenges in accurately modeling mechanical behavior due to the anisotropy induced by layer-by-layer deposition and variability in inter-filament bonding. This study introduces a hierarchical Bayesian framework for selecting and calibrating constitutive models in 3D-printed cementitious materials. Three candidate models—parabolic (Model 1), Carreira–Chu (Model 2), and plastic-damage (Model 3)—were assessed using uniaxial compression data from (i) soil–cement pastes with calcium carbonate additions (0–10%), (ii) cast and 3D-printed mortars, and (iii) 3D-printed concrete tested under perpendicular and parallel loading orientations. Bayesian inference combined with information criteria (Watanabe–Akaike Information Criterion and leave-one-out cross-validation) enabled objective model selection and uncertainty quantification. The Carreira–Chu model consistently outperformed alternatives for homogeneous systems (soil–cement and mortars), while the plastic-damage model best represented anisotropic responses in printed concrete loaded parallel to the deposition direction. Experimental findings indicate a 44% decrease in elastic modulus with 10% calcium carbonate, a 9.1% increase in compressive strength for printed versus cast mortars (8.36 vs. 7.66 MPa), and a 21% strength gain in concrete loaded parallel versus perpendicular to the deposition direction, despite a 40% reduction in stiffness. The proposed hierarchical Bayesian approach provides probabilistic estimates of constitutive parameters (compressive strength, elastic modulus, and characteristic strain) and data-driven guidance for selecting suitable models for additive manufacturing of cementitious materials, enhancing the reliability of structural simulations of 3D-printed elements.

Graphical abstract
Keywords
Three-dimensional-printed concrete
Cementitious materials
Bayesian inference
Model calibration
Funding
This research was supported by the Ministry of Science, Technology, and Innovation, Colombia, through Funding Call 6 of the 2021–2022 biennium of the General Royalties System, within the framework of the project “Development of a 3D printing system of sustainable non-conventional materials for the advancement of rural infrastructure in the department of Cauca” (BPIN 2020000100625) at Universidad del Valle.
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest regarding the publication of this paper.
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Materials Science in Additive Manufacturing, Electronic ISSN: 2810-9635 Published by AccScience Publishing