AccScience Publishing / AJWEP / Online First / DOI: 10.36922/AJWEP026280190
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ORIGINAL RESEARCH ARTICLE

Global warming-driven soil desiccation and hydrological decline in Namangan foothills, Uzbekistan

Mirzohid Koriyev1 ,  Dilshod Dustnazarov2 ,  Kenjabek Rozumbetov3,4 ,  Valery Erkudov5 ,  Eranga Wimalasiri6 ,  Shanika Arachchi7 ,  Upaka Rathnayake8*
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1 Department of Agricultural Meteorology, Hydrometeorological Research Institute, Central Asian University of Environmental and Climate Change Studies (Green University), Tashkent , Uzbekistan
2 Water Resources Protection Laboratory, Research Institute Environment and Nature Conservation Technologies, Central Asian University of Environmental and Climate Change Studies (Green University), Tashkent , Uzbekistan
3 Department of Veterinary Diagnostics and Food Safety, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine and Zootechnics, Nukus Branch of the Samarkand State University of Veterinary Medicine, Livestock and Biotechnologies, Nukus , Uzbekistan
4 Department of Human and Animal Physiology, Faculty of Biology, Karakalpak State University, Nukus , Uzbekistan
5 Department of Normal Physiology, Saint Petersburg State Pediatric Medical University, St. Petersburg , Russia
6 Department of Export Agriculture, Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, Sabaragamuwa University of Sri Lanka, Belihuloya , Sri Lanka
7 Department of Electronics and Mechanical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Technology, Atlantic Technological University, Letterkenny , Ireland
8 Department of Civil Engineering and Construction, Faculty of Engineering and Design, Atlantic Technological University, Sligo , Ireland
AJWEP, 026280190 https://doi.org/10.36922/AJWEP026280190
Received: 11 July 2026 | Revised: 6 August 2026 | Accepted: 10 August 2026 | Published online: 2 September 2026
© 2026 by the Author(s). This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License ( https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ )
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Abstract

The foothills of Central Asia are climate-sensitive transition zones where persistent warming is driving a “warming–drying paradox”—water resources decline even as rainfall holds steady because evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation. This study assessed long-term hydroclimatic change in the Namangan foothills of eastern Uzbekistan as an indicator of climate-induced aridification by integrating meteorological records (1881–2022), river runoff data (1951–2021), and Landsat-derived soil moisture maps (1990–2023). The results showed a clear warming trend alongside only a slight rise in precipitation. Between 1990 and 2023, the area of dry soils increased nearly eightfold, while river runoff fell by more than 50% after 1951. Rising temperatures intensify evapotranspiration, reduce soil moisture, and weaken the hydrological regime. Mid-mountain foothills act as early indicators of hydrothermal change under continental warming, underlining the need for adaptation focused on evaporation control, soil moisture conservation, and catchment-scale water management.

Keywords
Aridification
Climate change
Foothill hydrology
Namangan
Soil moisture
Funding
None.
Conflict of interest
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
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Asian Journal of Water, Environment and Pollution, Electronic ISSN: 1875-8568 Print ISSN: 0972-9860, Published by AccScience Publishing
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