Localizing vulnerability, hazard, and disaster risk assessments based on the Hazards-of-Place model in Southern Malawi

The localization of vulnerability, hazard, and risk assessments to advance disaster risk reduction is critical. Although several models of vulnerability, hazard, and disaster risk exist, their applicability at a microscale level remains largely untested, limiting their ability to inform stakeholders directly involved in disaster risk management (DRM) in Malawi. Different regions of Malawi face distinct levels of risks and vulnerabilities, prompting stakeholder participation in the DRM discourse, but with limited access to evidence-based decision-making tools. Therefore, this study applies the Hazards-of-Place Model to assess vulnerability, hazard, and disaster risk in the traditional authorities (TAs) of Lundu and Kalembo, located in the disaster-prone districts of Chikwawa and Balaka, respectively, in southern Malawi. The model was employed to evaluate vulnerability and disaster risk; analyze mitigation, resilience, and adaptive capacity (AC); and develop a community engagement and resilience framework. Designed as a qualitative study, it employed 15 focus group discussions and semi-structured interviews with 352 participants to provide in-depth, locally specific insights into community values, perceptions, practices, and social contexts. Findings indicate that households in both TAs are exposed to multiple hazards due to the biophysical characteristics of their areas, while AC measures remain insufficient to mitigate risks. Furthermore, land governance and leadership structures exacerbate vulnerability. This study highlights that the degree of exposure to hazards in Lundu and Kalembo significantly influences vulnerability to disaster risk. This study provides a community engagement resilience framework that can be applied to hazard and risk mitigation and serves as a tool to support the implementation of adaptive and transformative interventions aimed at reducing multiple vulnerabilities and risks in these communities.
- Ludin SM. Risk of deterioration among general ward patients: Nurses ability in assessing early warning signs. Malays J Med Res. 2018;2:19-29.
- Mwalwimba IK, Manda M, Ngongondo C. Measuring vulnerability to assess households resilience to flood risks in Karonga district, Malawi. Nat Hazards. 2024;120(7):6609-6628. doi: 10.1007/s11069-024-06416-4
- Nazeer M, Bork HR. A local scale flood vulnerability assessment in the flood-prone area of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. Nat Hazards. 2021;105(1):755-781. doi: 10.1007/s11069-020-04336-7
- Cutter SL. Vulnerability to environmental hazards. Prog Hum Geogr. 1996;20(4):529-539. doi: 10.1177/030913259602000407
- Cutter SL, Boruff BJ, Shirley WL. Social vulnerability to environmental hazards. Soc Sci Q. 2003;84(2):242-261. doi: 10.1111/1540-6237.8402002
- Paul SK. Vulnerability concepts and its application in various fields: A review on geographical perspective. J Life Earth Sci. 2003;8(3):63-81. doi: 10.3329/jles.v8i0.20150
- Birkmann J. Measuring Vulnerability to Promote Disaster-Resilient Societies: Conceptual Frameworks and Definitions. Bonn, Germany: UNU-IEH; 2014.
- Manda M, Wanda E. Understanding the nature and scale of risks in Karonga, Malawi. Environ Urban. 2017;29(1):15-32. doi: 10.1177/0956247817692200
- Adeloye AJ, Mwale FD, Dulanya Z. A metric-based assessment of flood risk and vulnerability of rural communities in the Lower Shire Valley, Malawi. IAHS-AISH Proc Rep. 2015;370:139-145. doi: 10.5194/piahs-370-139-2015
- Ciurean DS, Glade T. Conceptual frameworks of vulnerability: Assessments for natural disaster reduction. In: Tiefenbacher JP, editor. Approaches to Disaster Management: Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters. London, UK: Intech Open; 2013. doi: 10.5772/3355
- Birkmann J, Cardona OD, Carreño ML, et al. Framing vulnerability, risk and societal responses: The move framework. Nat Hazards. 2013;67(2):193-211. doi: 10.1007/s11069-013-0558-5
- Wisner B, Gaillard JC, Kelman I. Handbook on Hazards and Disaster Risk Reduction. London, UK: Routledge; 2012.
- Nasiri H, Mohd Yusof MJ, Mohammad Ali TA. An overview to flood vulnerability assessment methods. Sustain Water Resour Manage. 2016;2(4):331-336. doi: 10.1007/s40899- 016-0051-x
- Nasiri H, Kavanagh SS. Flood vulnerability index as a knowledge base for flood risk assessment in urban areas. J Novel Appl Sci. 2013;2(8):269-272.
- Joakim E. Assessing the Hazard of Place Model of Vulnerability: A Case Study of Waterloo Region [Master’s Thesis]. Waterloo, ON: University of Waterloo; 2008. Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/ publication/254728595
- Yoon DK. Assessment of social vulnerability to natural disasters: A comparative study. Nat Hazards. 2012; 63(2):823-843. doi: 10.1007/s11069-012-0189-2
- Wisner B, Blaikie P, Cannon T, Davis I. The challenge of disasters and our approach. In: At Risk: Natural Hazards, People’s Vulnerability, and Disasters. 2nd ed. Milton Park: Routledge; 2014. p. 3-48.
- Jamshed A. Assessing Vulnerability and Capacity of Flood-Affected Communities in Punjab, Pakistan [Master’s Thesis]. Stuttgart, Germany: University of Stuttgart; 2015.
- Manda S, Thindwa TTM. ‘This one caught us unaware’: Disaster politics and institutions during Cyclone Freddy in Malawi. Int J Disaster Risk Reduct. 2025;117:105144. doi: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.105144
- Mwalwimba IK, Mtafu MZ, Ngongondo C. Flood vulnerability assessment in rural and urban informal settlements: Case study of Karonga District and Lilongwe City in Malawi. Nat Hazards. 2024; 120(11):10141-10184. doi: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3407776/v1
- Brown W. Sovereignty matters: Africa, donors, and the aid relationship. Afr Aff. 2013;112(447):262-282. doi: 10.1093/afraf/adt001
- Government of Malawi. Malawi 2019 Floods Post Disaster Needs Assessment Report. Lilongwe, Malawi: Government of Malawi; 2019.
- Moreira LL, De Brito MM, Kobiyama M. Review article: A systematic review and prospects of flood vulnerability indices. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci. 2021;21(5):1513-1530. doi: 10.5194/nhess-21-1513-2021
- Iloka NG. Perception of Ethnicity, Local Knowledge and Sustainable Livelihoods in Relation to DRR: The Case of Nsukka in South-East Nigeria [PhD Thesis]. Newcastle: University of Northumbria; 2017.
- Bixler RP, Paul S, Jones J, Preisser M, Passalacqua P. Unpacking adaptive capacity to flooding in urban environments: Social capital, social vulnerability, and risk perception. Front Water. 2021;3:72873. doi: 10.3389/frwa.2021.72873
- Government of Malawi. Malawi 2022 Floods Post- Disaster Needs Assessment Report. Lilongwe, Malawi: Government of Malawi; 2022.
- Government of Malawi. Malawi 2023 Tropical Cyclone Freddy Post-Disaster Needs Assessment. Lilongwe, Malawi: Government of Malawi; 2023.
- Wright G, Sakic Trogrlic R, Adeloye A, Duncan MJ, Mwale FD. Community-Based Flood Risk Management: Experiences and Challenges in Malawi. In: XVI World Water Congress. Cancun, Mexico; 2017. p1-13. Available from: https://wwc2017.iwra.org/congress/ resource/absid173_absid173_sakictrogrlicetal.2017. finala/pprovedversion.pdf
- Parvin F, Ali SA, Calka B, Bielecka E, Linh NTT, Pham QB. Urban flood vulnerability assessment in a densely urbanized city using multi-factor analysis and machine learning algorithms. Theor Appl Climatol. 2022;149(1-2):639-659. doi: 10.1007/s00704-022-04068-7
- Wisner B. Vulnerability as Concept, Model, Metric and Tool. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. MO-UNESCO. International Glossary of Hydrology; 2016. Available from: https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ images/0022/002218/221862m.pdf
- Zhou Y, Liu Y, Wu W, Li N. Integrated risk assessment of multi-hazards in China. Nat Hazards. 2015;78(1):257-280. doi: 10.1007/s11069-015-1713-y
- Pham NT, Nong D, Raghavan Sathyan A, Garschagen M. Vulnerability assessment of households to flash floods and landslides in the poor upland regions of Vietnam. Clim Risk Manag. 2020;28:100215. doi: 10.1016/j.crm.2020.100215
- Mtembenuzeni J, Kushe J. Theory and practice of vulnerability to disasters in flood-prone areas in Chikwawa, Malawi. Environ Ecol Res. 2018;6(3):137-146. doi: 10.13189/eer.2018.060301
- Iloka NG. Indigenous knowledge for disaster risk reduction: An African perspective. Jamba. 2016;8(3):a272. doi: 10.4102/jamba.v8i1.272
- Fritzsche K, Schneiderbauer S, Bubeck P. The Vulnerability Sourcebook: Concept and Guidelines for Standardised Vulnerability Assessments. Bonn, Germany: Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development; 2014.
- Oyedele P, Kola E, Olorunfemi F, Walz Y. Understanding flood vulnerability in local communities of Kogi State, Nigeria, using an index-based approach. Water (Switzerland). 2022;14(17):234. doi: 10.3390/w1417274
- Alam I, Khan SM, Salam R. Vulnerability assessment based on household views from the Dammar Char in Southeastern Bangladesh. Nat Hazards. 2022;113(1):329-334. doi: 10.1007/s11069-022-05302-1
- Kron W, Eichner J, Kundzewicz ZW. Reduction of flood risk in Europe-reflections from a reinsurance perspective. J Hydrol. 2019;576:197-209. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.06.050
- Munthali CK, Manda M, Bwanali W. Assessment of socio economic vulnerability to flooding in Mweniyumba neighbourhood, Karonga Township. Environ Pollut Clim Change. 2021;7(5):207-245.
- Munyai RB, Musyoki A, Nethengwe NS. An assessment of flood vulnerability and adaptation: A case study of Hamutsha-Muungamunwe village, Makhado municipality. Jamba. 2019;11(2):692. doi: 10.4102/jamba.v11i2.692
- Pauw K, Thurlow J, Bachu M, Van Seventer DE. The economic costs of extreme weather events: A hydro-meteorological CGE analysis for Malawi. Environ Dev Econ. 2011;16(2):177-198.
- Qasim S, Qasim M, Shrestha RP, Khan AN. An assessment of flood vulnerability in Khyber Pukhtunkhwa province of Pakistan. AIMS Environ Sci. 2017;4(2):206-216. doi: 10.3934/environsci.2017.2.206
- Birkmann J, Schüttrumpf H, Handmer J, et al. Strengthening resilience in reconstruction after extreme events - insights from flood affected communities in Germany. Int J Disaster Risk Reduct. 2023;96:103965. doi: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.103965
- Mwalwimba KI, Manda M, Ngongondo C. Towards a framework for flood vulnerability assessment for rural and urban informal settlements in Malawi. J Geogr Nat Disasters. 2024;14:305. doi: 10.35248/2167-0587.24.14.305
- Msasa CM, Manda MAZC. Physical vulnerability of buildings to flooding in Lilongwe City, Malawi. UCL Open Environ. 2025;7:e3216. doi: 10.14324/111.444/ucloe.3216
- Government of Malawi. Malawi 2015 Floods Post- Disaster Needs Assessment Report. Lilongwe, Malawi: Government of Malawi; 2015.
- Kablan MK, Dongo K, Coulibaly M. Assessment of social vulnerability to flood in urban Cote d’Ivoire using the MOVE framework. Water. 2017;9(292):1-22. doi: 10.3390/w9040292
- Karagiorgos K, Thaler T, Hubi J, Fuchs S. Multi-vulnerability analysis for flash flood risk management. Nat Hazards. 2016;4(3):30-55. doi: 10.1007/s11069-016-2296-y
- Kikstra JS, Nicholls ZR, Smith CJ, et al. The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report WGIII climate assessment of mitigation pathways: From emissions to global temperatures. Geosci Model Dev. 2022;15(24):9075-9109. doi: 10.5194/gmd-15-9075-2022
- Liu S, Zheng W, Zhou Z, Zhong G, Zhen Y, Shi Z. Flood risk assessment of buildings based on vulnerability curve: A case study in Anji County. Water. 2022;14:3572. doi: 10.3390/w14213572
- Nazeer M, Bork HR. Flood vulnerability assessment through different methodological approaches in the context of North-West Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Sustainability. 2019;11(23):6695. doi: 10.3390/su11236695
- Ma L, Li M, Ma X, Cheng L, Du P, Liu Y. A review of supervised object-based land-cover image classification. ISPRS J Photogramm Remote Sens. 2017;130:277-293. doi: 10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2017.06.001
- Maldonado-Méndez ML, Romo-Lozano JL, Monterroso- Rivas AI. Determinant indicators for assessing the adaptive capacity of agricultural producers to climate change. Atmosphere (Basel). 2022;13(7):1114. doi: 10.3390/atmos13071114
- Mugiraneza A. Pathways to livelihood resilience in Rwanda’s agricultural communities. Afr J Agric Res. 2021;16(4):67-76.
- Thanvisitthpon S, Shrestha S, Pal I, Ninsawat S, Chaowiwat W. Assessment of flood adaptive capacity of urban areas in Thailand. Environ Impact Assess Rev. 2020;17(3):106363. doi: 10.1016/j.eiar.2019.106363
- Mokoena R. Resilience in adversity: A South African case study of community responses during COVID-19. J Dev Stud. 2022;58(3):256-270.
- Tembo MD. A Dynamic Assessment of Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change: A Case Study of Water Management in Makondo, Uganda [PhD Thesis]. University of Ireland, Maynooth; 2013.
- Mwalwimba IK, Manda M, Ngongondo C. The role of indigenous knowledge in disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in Chikwawa, Malawi. Jamba. 2024;16(2):1810. doi: 10.4102/jamba.v16i2.1810
- Mwalwimba IK, Kalonjeka B, Msadala V, et al. Deep learning-based flood risk prediction for climate resilience planning in Malawi. J Atmos Sci Res. 2025;8(2):37-50. doi: 10.30564/jasr.v8i2.10377
- Nguyen KV, James H. Measuring household resilience to floods: A case study in the Vietnamese Mekong River Delta. Ecol Soc. 2013;18(3) 40-100. doi: 10.5751/es-05427-180313