Nucleolin overexpression correlates with poor prognosis and immune checkpoint regulation across various cancer types: Insights from The Cancer Genome Atlas and GTEx analyses
Introduction: Nucleolin (NCL) is an established cancer target proposed to modulate the tumor immune microenvironment, but has not been systematically tested across cancers.
Objective: To systematically investigate the pan-cancer association of NCL expression with tumor progression, prognosis, and the tumor immune microenvironment, with emphasis on immune infiltration and immune checkpoint genes.
Methods: We analyzed 9,358 TCGA tumors across 33 cancer types against 7,262 GTEx and 727 adjacent normal samples using uniformly reprocessed transcriptomes, assessing differential expression with Wilcoxon tests and Cliff’s delta, and stage association with the Jonckheere–Terpstra trend test. Three survival endpoints were modeled using multivariable Cox regression, adjusting for age, sex, stage, and grade, with proportional hazards checks. Immune infiltration was estimated by seven deconvolution algorithms as purity-adjusted partial correlations, with checkpoint correlations additionally proliferation-adjusted. All test families were Benjamini–Hochberg-corrected, and the findings were validated in nine independent Clinical Proteomic Tumor Analysis Consortium (CPTAC) cohorts.
Results: NCL was overexpressed in 24 of 29 evaluable cancers (Cliff’s delta up to +0.93) and reduced in ovarian carcinoma; 7 of 9 CPTAC cohorts confirmed elevated NCL protein. A stage-ordered increase was present in only 2 of 17 cancers. After covariate adjustment and false discovery rate correction, NCL remained independently prognostic in only two: kidney renal papillary cell carcinoma (overall survival hazard ratio 2.12, 95% CI 1.37–3.29) and adrenocortical carcinoma (progression-free hazard ratio 2.41, 95% CI 1.40–4.16).
Conclusion: NCL correlated negatively with the microenvironment score in every cancer where the association was significant, and positively with B7-H3 in 21 of 33 cancers, whereas CTLA-4, PD-1, and TIM-3 were largely uncorrelated. NCL, therefore, associates with tumor-intrinsic immunosuppressive ligands and an immune-excluded phenotype rather than with T-cell checkpoints, and its transcript-level prognostic value is limited, consistent with prior evidence that this effect is localization-dependent.
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