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ORIGINAL RESEARCH ARTICLE

Impacts of mode shift on well-to-wheel emissions from inter-capital transport in Australia – Part II: Sea and air transport

Robin Smit1,2* ,  Paul Graeme Boulter3
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1 Transport Energy/Emission Research, Launceston, TAS, Australia
2 Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, Australia
3 EMM Consulting, St. Leonards, New South Wales, Australia
EER 2024, 1(1), 3471 https://doi.org/10.36922/eer.3471
Submitted: 23 April 2024 | Accepted: 27 June 2024 | Published: 26 July 2024
© 2024 by the Author(s). This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License ( https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ )
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Abstract

Achieving a mode shift in the transport sector will be important in helping Australia to meet its target for net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050. However, robust data for Australian transport have previously been unavailable or limited. This paper extends a recent analysis of mode shift impacts for land surface transport (Part I) to include sea transport (freight only) and air transport (passengers and freight) and demonstrates recently developed assessment tools. The analysis considers the potential of inter-mode shifts to reduce well-to-wheel/wake (WTW) emissions (as CO2-equivalents, CO2-e) in 2019, 2030, and 2050, specifically for the transport of either passengers or freight between Brisbane and Melbourne as a case study. The analysis provides emission intensities in grams per passenger-km (g/pkm) and grams per tonne-km (g/tkm), as well as annualized values, and considers the variability and uncertainty in the estimates using a probabilistic approach. For sea freight transport, the average emission intensities are 9 – 16 g CO2-e/tkm for container ships and 4 – 8 g CO2-e/tkm for bulk carriers, depending on the year. For air passenger transport, excluding non-CO2 climate effects, the emission intensity decreases from 166 g CO2-e/pkm in 2019 – 89 g CO2-e/pkm in 2050. Air transport performs particularly poorly for freight; the emission intensity was 1,345 g CO2-e/tkm in 2019, decreasing to 719 g CO2-e/tkm in 2050. The analysis shows that a transfer of passengers from air or road to electric rail, and a transfer of freight from road to sea or electric rail, have the potential to significantly reduce WTW emissions. For example, for passenger transport between Brisbane and Melbourne, the complete transfer of travel from air to electric rail would reduce annual emissions (including non-CO2 effects) by around 95% in both 2030 and 2050. A complete transfer of freight from road to sea would reduce emissions by around 60 – 80%. In 2050, the complete transfer of freight to electric rail from road, diesel rail, and air transport would reduce WTW emissions between the cities by 83%, 81%, and 99.6%, respectively. The study provides valuable new information on mode shift and GHG emissions across all modes. As such, it helps researchers, policy-makers, transport/land-use planners, and network operators to quantify, design, and implement mode shift measures to reduce emissions.

Keywords
Transport
Emissions
Mode
Shift
Passenger
Freight
Air
Sea
Funding
None.
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no competing interests.
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